What’s Happening in Myanmar?
On February 1, the Myanmar military, headed by Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, carried out a coup, forcing out the civilian part of the government. Though there was disenfranchisement of ethnic communities in the national elections in November 2020, observers deemed the polls free and fair. The National League for Democracy (NLD) party swept the election, leaving Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) Myanmar’s de facto leader. Although the NLD overwhelmingly won seats in government, the military retains at least 25% of the seats in parliament, and the three most powerful ministries (Defense, Home and Border Affairs) based on the 2008 constitution. The military, unhappy with the results, claimed the election was plagued with fraud.
On the morning of February 1, hours before the new government was to be sworn in, the military detained ASSK and other members of the NLD party. Charges against ASSK and others continue to rise. ASSK herself is facing fresh corruption accusations as well as charges for incitement, illegally importing walkie-talkies, and breaching COVID protocols. Other NLD officials have been detained in addition to journalists, and protesters.
The people of Myanmar know all too well the oppressive power that the military is capable of. From 1962 to 2011 the military ruled, overseeing the violent repression of the democracy movement and waging war against ethnic groups. Civilians were not going to stay passive as the military took over and right away began nightly protests, banging pots and pans, a tradition to cast away evil spirits. The nightly protests turned to daytime rallies. Internet blackouts occur nightly but people across the country continue to come out in opposition to the military. The three fingered salute has become the symbol of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM).
The military has committed atrocities and human rights violations with impunity for years. Anti-coup protests are unlikely to subside and the risk of further violence by the security forces remains extremely high. UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said that abuses committed by the military since the coup may amount to crimes against humanity. While the protest remained relatively peaceful at first, they have turned increasingly violent. The junta has declared martial law in parts of the country as security forces continue to kill protesters in an increasingly lethal crackdown. Though the death count varies widely and is expected to rise, at least 160 have been killed in Myanmar since February 1 and dozens were killed this past Sunday, March 14.
Soon after the coup, the Committee for Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) was formed by elected members of parliament that were not part of the military. Seeking international recognition, this parallel government is taking an increasingly strong position against the coup. In the past few days the CRPH's acting vice president vowed to pursue a revolution to overthrow the coup and to "legislate the required laws so that the people have the right to defend themselves," a statement that was followed with CRPH affirming the right to self-defense, perhaps suggesting a shift in protesters' willingness to use violence.
What does Myanmar's coup means for the Rohingya and other ethnic communities? Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh worry that the coup has even further reduced already waning hopes of soon returning home to Myanmar. In an interview with NPR, Bangladesh-based Rohingya Youth Association, Khin Maung, said, "They have the plan to destroy us. Now they are leading our country." While most attention has focused on urban centers, war between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups continues in many of the ethnic states (with Rakhine a notable exception). A good reminder that the horrors now happening in Yangon, Mandalay, and Sagaing are the lived experiences of ethnic minorities for decades. In recent weeks, conflict has continued in Kayin, Shan, and escalated in Kachin, where intense fighting is on-going for the first time since 2018 and civilians are newly displaced. The exception (for now) is in Rakhine, where the Arakan Army is no longer considered a terrorist organization and the Arakan National Party is cooperating with the Tatmadaw in exchange for a greater say in managing Rakhine State affairs.
International Response:
On March 10 the UNSC adopted a Presidential Statement that “stresses the need to uphold democratic institutions and processes, refrain from violence, fully respect human rights and fundamental freedom.”
On February 25 the World Bank halted all withdrawal requests by Myanmar.
The United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom (UK) have imposed targeted sanctions on some senior military officials.
Biden signed an executive order on February 11, granting sweeping authority to the US to impose targeted sanctions on the Tatmadaw and Tatmadaw-linked entities. In the wake of the executive order, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 10 individuals - members of the National Defense and Security Council and the State Administrative Council - and three gems companies controlled by the military. Among those sanctioned were Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Deputy Commander of the Tatmadaw Soe Win, and First Vice President Myint Swe. The US also froze $1 billion in Myanmar assets in the US, imposed export restrictions on sensitive items, and repurposed $42 million in support towards civil society and away from the Myanmar government US imposed additional targeted sanctions, designating the children of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing and six companies they control. The US imposed export restrictions on the Ministries of Defence and Home Affairs as well military conglomerates MEC and MEHL, though the measures are likely to have limited effect and are narrower than what activists have been calling for. Myanmar nationals currently living in the US were granted Temporary Protected Status for 18 months.
The UK has also launched an enhanced due diligence process to “mitigate the risk of military businesses operating in the UK” and suspended all trade promotion with Myanmar.
On March 4th the EU suspended all development aid to Myanmar to avoid providing financial assistance to the military. On March 22, the EU imposed sanctions on Commander-in-Chief MIn Aung Hlaing, Deputy Commander-in-Chief Soe Win, and nine others, preventing them from traveling to the EU and freezing their assets. While this falls far short of where rights advocates had hoped, EU diplomats say military-run conglomerates MEC and MEHL will be targeted by the EU soon.
On March 12 South Korea announced restricted military exports and suspended bilateral defense exchanges with Myanmar.
After coming under heavy criticism, Australia suspended its bilateral defense cooperation with the Tatmadaw and is redirecting its development programs to support humanitarian needs.
Despite Russia saying it was considering suspending defense cooperation with Myanmar on Friday, it was reported that Russia will deliver two refurbished MIGs, sniper and assault rifles, and ammunition to Myanmar.
What should be done?
In order to have a positive outcome, in support of the people’s desire for a true democracy and restoration of citizenship for all, there must be a coordinated effort by the international community.
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect has these recommendations:
The UNSC should immediately impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Myanmar and sanction senior military officials, including General Min Aung Hlaing. All UN member states and regional organizations should take urgent measures in response to the reimposition of military rule. The military regime should not be diplomatically recognized as the legitimate representatives of Myanmar.
Foreign companies should immediately divest and sever ties with businesses linked to Myanmar’s military rulers, including the military-controlled conglomerates Myanmar Economic Holdings and Myanmar Economic Corporation.
General Min Aung Hlaing and other senior coup leaders who bear responsibility for crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide should face international justice.
What’s next?
The potential for deescalation was increasingly remote even before this weekend. An analysis of nine possible scenarios from ISEAS suggests Myanmar is stuck in a the scenario of a "failed state characterized by chaos and anarchy"; the report concludes that "the more the anti-coup movement proves able to adopt comprehensive and diverse strategies, the more intense and even desperate the repression imposed by Myanmar’s military will become." With the Tatmadaw capable of extreme levels of violence and protesters' resolve hardening (and demands widening), the prospect of Myanmar becoming a failed state grow.
A recent piece by Frontier Myanmar outlines the five key challenges facing the CDM: 1) defining success given disparate demands among protestors; 2) determining who can lead the CDM and represent it in negotiations; 3) making the CDM sustainable by inflicting "maximum harm on the military regime’s ability to function while ensuring the public can still access basic necessities"; 4) providing resources to CDM participants; and 5) overcome the belief that Myanmar will be "saved" by the international community ("The CDM needs to position itself as the leader of an internationally backed movement against military rule in Myanmar, and not play the role of a victim bravely fighting while waiting for reinforcements to arrive.")
The people of Myanmar are not going to give up though. As human rights activist Thinzar Shinlei Yi, said “Our demands are no longer just to hold the murderous generals accountable, but also to dismantle the whole institution once & for all.”
For information on how you can support local organizations, please visit https://www.isupportmyanmar.com/.
For updated coverage of the coup, visit: https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/myanmar-protests-live/
Aljazeera produced a very informative 25 minute documentary on the coup which you can access here: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/101-east/2021/3/11/inside-myanmars-crackdown